The view from 2010

One senses that the newspaper business is experiencing a bit of a lull. The economy is improving somewhat, providing some hope that advertising revenues might recover a little bit. But the underlying problems with the print newspaper business model are still there. The Great Recession exacerbated the problems, but did not cause them. Newspapers have weathered past downturns better than many industries.

The biggest paper to undergo some major restructuring over the holiday period was the Washington Times, but that paper is a unique beast -- more of a vanity press than anything else -- and provides little guidance on how things are faring with more ordinary papers. Many papers will undoubtedly be taking stock now that the calendar year has closed and we may get a better sense in this quarter about how 2010 will be.

Washington Times plans big cuts

Looks like the Washington Times is about to abandon the daily newspaper business. "Significant reductions" are planned, according to TPM, but the more interesting news is that the paper is likely dropping its Metro and Sports departments and ending home delivery.

It's going to be a propaganda organ, plain and simple.

USA Today cuts news jobs

The Washington Business Journal reports USA Today is cutting 26 more newsroom jobs and Gannett's newspapers are implementing a 1-week furlough in the first quarter as the newspaper chain continues to struggle.

While the economy may be turning around I doubt it will be quick enough or robust enough to save most daily newspapers.

Washington Post hunkers down

It looks like the Washington Post is pulling out of its bureaus in other U.S. cities to concentrate on Washington-area coverage in yet another example of cuts that can't help but devalue the content of the news organization.

One wonders if sacrificing content makes sense given the competitive environment.

When all else fails -- cheat

Evidently, as bad as recent reports of newspaper circulation losses are, in reality they are probably worse. According to this article new auditing rules mean that newspapers can doublecount online and print subscribers.

The shape of thing to come?

The overall trend is ghoulish, appropriately enough, on this Halloween 2009. Newspaper circulations are hemorrhaging readership worse than a slasher movie victim hemorrhages blood. The Washington Post explains the details.


But the essence is that almost everybody is seeing huge and fatal losses in circulation that can't be sustained more than a couple more years unless stopped.


But those few exceptions suggest which print newspapers may survive.


First off, the only large daily to see a gain was the Wall Street Journal. This suggests that a print newspaper with high quality house-generated content might survive in a few knowledge-based niches. The WSJ for finance, but are there other niches where this kind of model might work.


The other newspaper seeing gains are all smaller dailies that cover small and medium-sized cities. In many cases these cities have no other regular media covering them -- not even TV. This could be considered another niche market where there's enough demand for the information that people are willing to pay for it, and a restricted supply of quality news providers.

Sinking ships

The latest circulation figures are beyond grim with most major papers seeing double digit annual drops in circulation, including big names such as the New York Times.

In particular, the Boston Globe saw an 18% drop in circulation. Obviously that kind of precipitous drop can't be sustained very long, At some point advertisers will lose faith that anyone is seeing their ads and at that point it will be time turn out the light.

We're in the endgame here. There will be a massive wave of closures over the next 12 months, led by newspapers like the Globe that have a legacy debt that there's no way they can hope to repay.

Count me as a skeptic

Rumor has it Apple will soon unveil a new "tablet" device that will "save" print media.

It will be interesting to see, but I suspect that the "saving" involved will not be the kind of saving the media expects and wants.

I already get the AP feed and New York Times on my Kindle. I find it very convenient and generally cost-effective. (I have dropped the NYT for now, though) That said, the key point I need to make about my Kindle is, as much as I like it, I have yet to see anyone else with one.

I'm sure there are major metro areas and college campuses where they abound, but I'm not in some desert or cave either and the fact that I don't see Kindles around makes me suspect that this kind of device will not be the wholesale salvation of newspapers.

Hard figures on newspaper declines

Circulation figures don't tell the whole story, because in large measure the biggest problem for newspapers is not lost subscribers but lost advertisers.

This report indicated that year-over-year newsprint production is down more than 27%. This is significant because it reflects not just circulation declines, but less advertising as well. Papers are getting smaller.

Still dropping

Slump still stinging.

Wall Street Journal reports:

A.H. Belo Corp.'s (AHC) second-quarter loss widened as the media company's advertising revenue fell 30% amid a prolonged slump and a movement of readers to the Internet.

Healthy sense of self -- or arrogance?

Interesting discussion about journalists, news and newspapers that debates the assumption that news needs journalists.

http://www.buzzmachine.com/2009/07/04/journalistic-narcissism/

It's getting tough for weekly papers too. Bay State Banner suspends publication

Boston's community newspaper for people of color suspended publication Tuesday, laying off all 12 employees.

http://www.necn.com/Boston/Business/2009/07/07/Bay-State-Banner-suspends/1246984268.html

Sometimes they just disappear

When the big dailies go under, there's usually at least some warning, but smaller papers can simply disappear. Here's a broadcast media web site's notice that a small newspaper serving five Texas towns simply stopped publishing.

http://www.wfaa.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/localnews/tv/stories/wfaa090703_ac_newspapers.5ffe9e5.html

Washington Post scandal

This is a huge scandal.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0709/24441.html

The single most important asset old style newspapers have going for them is their credibility. If they lose that, then they have no chance competing against TMZ or other newer media.

This appalling story is incredibly damaging to the credibility of the Post and raises questions about other leading newspapers, too. How much does this sort of thing happen, anyway? I've never heard of anything like this at a state-level newspaper, but one wonders if the rules that apply out here in the provinces apply at the Imperial Seat.

Chicago Sun-Times notes how Michael Jackson's death was a new media event

Being somewhat old fashioned, I guess, I first heard about it on CNN, but for many people the initial word came over the Internet -- or Twitter.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/nation/1640816,w-jackson-news-break-internet-062509.article

More rounds of pay cuts

Gatehouse media, which included my former newspapers The (Brockton, Mass.) Enterprise and The (Fall River, Mass.) Herald News is planning pay cuts that amount to 7.75 percent.

http://www.boston.com/business/ticker/2009/05/gatehouse_plans.html

Meanwhile, 10 percent pay cuts are coming to Portland, Maine newspaper owned by the Seattle Times.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2009277672_apmenewspapersale1stldwritethru.html

Pay cuts of this magnitude will have to start driving talent out of the newspaper business, in my opinion. If content suffers, newspaper brands will lose their value as well. If a newspaper's brand doesn't signify that it's news content quality is superior to some start-up Web-based news site then it cannot compete.

Tucson Citizen all done Saturday

The final print edition of the Tucson Citizen is being worked on as I write this and the last copies will hit newsstands tomorrow.

http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/

There will be an online edition that will "live" on.

We will see if this works

The Wall Street Journal to experiment with micropayments. An experiment that will be watched closely.

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003971568

Bigger Kindle debuts

Amazon announces a new Kindle that may be suitable for newspaper and magazines.

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B0015TCML0

They will miss us when we're gone ...

... but we'll still be gone.

Expert sees decline of print newspapers accelerating: http://www.bizreport.com/2009/05/printed_newspapers_to_decline_at_faster_rate_than_initially.html

Amusing excerpt:
However, some nostalgia remains for printed newspapers. The study found that a large percentage of Internet users remain loyal to print versions and, when asked if they would miss the print edition of their newspaper if it were no longer available, 61% of those who read newspapers offline agreed - up from 56% in 2007.